That's the question. Would they still be incentivized?
How willing will writers be to walk around with their Medium billboard for a fixed amount of $, say 3 months x 5/2 =$6 after fees?
Most likely much less than in the current situation. In the current program, the few $ seem to be recurrent and, therefore, appear infinite and much more attractive (although, of course, it's not true).
I don't think the new members from random links will be significant. If it works, the referral program will be successful because some writers will be actively promoting Medium. They will spend time and resources doing so.
1. What's the fair price for this work? => I don't know. Maybe your system is fairer.
2. What's the most efficient price? => the highest possible.
Thanks for this interesting piece and opportunity for discussion.
(And thanks for all your articles in general :)